Parliament Speaker's Secessionist Comments Surprises Iraq
Iraqi Parliament Speaker Usama al-Nujafi shocked the Iraqi political establishment when he declared that Sunni Arabs may consider seceding from Iraq if they are not given more power.
The comments, made during an interview with US-government backed Al-Hurra television while Nujafi was touring the US, led to speculation that America could support the idea.
There have been calls in the past for Sunni-dominated Hawija in Kirkuk to break away and create their own province because of the Kurdish authorities' dominance there, but Nujafi's talk of a full secession of minority Sunni Arabs was something totally new, said Iraq expert Reidar Visser.
Most Sunni Arab and Shia politicians reject the idea of seceding from Iraq, but many Kurds have considered it. Most notably, senior PUK official Kosrat Rasul and Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani have both stated that the Kurds have the right to a Kurdish state.
The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and other Shia-dominated parties floated the idea of creating a Shia region in southern Iraq in the past, but the idea lost traction and public support over the years. Now in control of most of Iraq's political institutions, the Shias don't need a separate region as the Kurds have to protect them from a strong central government.
Some Sunni Arabs have asked for more local power in Anbar and Salahaddin provinces but reject a Sunni region, fearing they would be locked in -- without oil -- between two powerful Shia and Kurdish regions.
The creation of a homogeneous Sunni region is also difficult given that many regions include Sunnis, Kurds and Shia. In diverse regions like Kirkuk and Mosul, where Arab nationalism is stronger, most Arabs reject secession since it could lead to conflict.
A high-profile Sunni politician from Kirkuk told me that the creation of a Sunni region was an old project of Sunni Arab states like Qatar, the Saudis and Jordan to "liberate Iraq from Iran and the US."
Most Sunni Arabs in Iraq fear Iran's influence. But the politician claimed that Sunni Arabs completely reject secessionism because it would eventually lead to the partition of Iraq. A UNAMI report claimed that the Arab district of Hawija in Kirkuk was opposed to creating its own province.
In 2006 then-US Senator Joseph Biden, currently the Vice-President, proposed the idea of partitioning Iraq, but only Kurdish nationalist parties supported this scheme. The US government didn't support the idea either, fearing it could give Iran even more power over the Shia region.
The fall of the Sunni-led Baath regime in 2003 politically weakened Sunni Arabs. But it is wrong to assume that the Baath was a Sunni-only party. It was created by a rich Shia merchant and later most Iraqi citizens -- of all ethnic and sectarian backgrounds -- were forced to become Baath members. Shia and Kurdish groups primarily opposed Saddam Hussein, however, and many Sunnis remained relatively quiet.
The Shia and Kurds had political parties with experience and money prior to 2003. The Sunni Arabs were surprised. They became strong supporters of the insurgency and boycotted the first parliamentary elections, but this only hurt their own interests.
The divisions among Iraqiya, which includes prominent Sunni leaders, and Sunni groups, along with Nujafi's statement, show the weakness of the Sunni political parties. Meanwhile, Shia parties are backed by Iran and the Kurds have a united project to annex the so-called disputed territories to the Kurdistan region through Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution.
It seems to me that Nujafi's statement is more the expression of frustration than a real plan to create a separate Sunni region. It was Nujafi and his nationalist Al-Hadba party from Mosul who rejected federalism or autonomy inside Iraq most fiercely. His opposition policy was strongly supported by Turkey financially and politically.
Nujafi's own allies in Mosul, most Sunni circles and the majority of the Iraqiya bloc rejected his "separatist" statement. The Iraqi National Accord (INA), the party of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, rejected it and Iraqiya MP Omar al-Jubouri asked for an explanation because he couldn't believe that Nujafi had actually made the statement. Nujafi's deputy immediately resigned in protest.
Members of Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law alliance and the Iraqi Islamic Party (which in the past some Sunnis accused of pushing for decentralization, says Visser) are trying to use Nujafi's words against the Iraqiya bloc. More than 50 Iraqi MPs have requested that Parliament hold Nujafi accountable, a member of the State of Law alliance has said.
It is clear that Sunni Arabs are unhappy with their ineffective political power in Iraq and their lack of unity. They are also upset that the Iraqiya coalition couldn't form a government, despite winning the majority of votes in last year's elections.
But I doubt this means they want to secede from Iraq or form an independent region, since it would leave them helpless and without any resources. The Sunnis might want to have more local power for Sunni-dominated provinces, but not secession is highly unlikely.